What We Know and What We Don't Know

It’s Week 6 in the NFL so there are some trends out there. For instance, home underdogs are 17-8 against the spread this year and underdogs overall are a whopping 43-28-5. So if you’ve been laying point against the spread you’re a much smarter person than me. And probably a whole lot richer.

Let’s look at the lines this week playing a game of “What We Know and What We Don’t Know” (team listed first is the team that I picked):

Kansas City +3 vs. Cincinnati
What we know: We know that outside of the game against the Chargers, the Chiefs offense has been dreadful this year. And outside of their game against the Ravens, the Bengal defense has been equally dreadful.

What we don’t know: We don’t know if a game against the Bengal’s defense will be enough to get Larry Johnson going. If it isn’t I think we can hold a memorial service for Larry Johnson’s 2007 season. The lesson of course is that it’s never a good idea to have your running back carry the ball over 400 times in a season.

Houston +6.5 at J’ville
What we know: We know Matt Shaub and David Garrard are capable quarterbacks. We know both teams have strong defenses and both teams play close games.

What we don’t know: We don’t know if either team is for real. The Texans have beaten the Dolphins, Panthers and Chiefs and the Jags have beaten the Chiefs, Falcons and Broncos. That’s not exactly a list of powerhouse teams right there. We’ll find out more about J’ville in next week’s Monday night game against the Colts. Until then, stay tuned.

Cleveland -4.5 vs. Miami
What we know: We know Cleveland can score -- especially at home and that they’re a bona fide sleeper team this year. We know the Cleo Lemon (the Dolphins starting QB this week) used to play for the Chargers.

What we don’t know: We don’t know if Ronnie Brown can continue his magical fantasy football season-- which is the only way Miami pulls off the upset. We don’t know if the Browns can win a game they’re supposed to. And we really don’t know why after suffering a severe concussion last year, Trent Green decided to dive head first into a lineman’s knee.

Chicago -5.5 vs. Minnesota
What we know: We know that there’s an Adrian Peterson on both the Bears and the Vikings. We know that the Adrian Peterson on the Vikings will be the only viable offensive player on either team this Sunday. We know that I have Adrian Peterson of the Vikings on my fantasy football team and last week picked up Adrian Peterson of the Bears and tried to trade him to my cousin Timmy hoping that he wouldn’t notice. We know that my fantasy team is sinking faster than Put Up Your Dukes and I’m desperate.

What we don’t know: We don’t know if Brian Griese is actually better than Rex Grossman.

Philly -3 at New York Jets
What we know: We know the Jets are a shell of the team they were last year. We know Chad Pennington can’t throw the ball over 15 yards. We know Thomas Jones is struggling this year. We know Philly always comes out strong after their bye week.

What we don’t know: We don’t know how much more losing Philly fans can take. Between the Phillies getting swept out of the playoffs, the Eagles 1-3 start and the beginning of a hopeless season for the 76ers there should be a mass suicide watch in that city right now.

Baltimore -10 vs. St. Louis
What we know: We know that ESPN columnist Bill Simmons equated this match-up to watching Sharon Stone and Mike Douglas getting it on in Basic Instinct 3.

What we don’t know: We don’t know what the hell happened to these two teams. The Ravens defense and the Ram’s offense used to be really good right? I guess the appropriate response would be so was Enron stock and the dial up internet.

eeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…… bong, bong, errrrrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…. bong, bong, bong…..

(In case you were wondering, that was my impression of the dial up internet.)

Tennessee +3 at Tampa Bay
What we know: We know that Vince Young wins games.

What we don’t know: We don’t know how he does it.

Washington +3 at Green Bay
What We Know: We know the Redskins have a good defense and we know the Packers can’t run the ball. We know that Brett Farve is officially rejuvenated. And thanks to Brett Farve’s wife and a botoxed-out Andrea Kramer, we know its breast cancer month or something.

What We Don’t Know: We don’t know if Jason Campbell can consistently play well.

Arizona -4 vs. Carolina
What we know: We know the Panthers signed Vinny Testerverde this week and he may start if David Carr can’t go. We know that Matt Leinhart is out for the year and Kurt Warner is starting for the Cardinals. That means this game could potentially feature a QB matchup between Vinny Testerverde and Kurt Warner.

What we don’t know: We don’t know if Kurt Warner’s comeback will include the comeback of his flat-top haired wife, Brenda. And since Christmas is almost just around the corner and since the Kurt Warner or Dough Christie jersey for the friend who’s whipped is almost played out, let me suggest this book by the Christie’s entitled “No Ordinary Love.”

Dallas +6 vs. New England
What we know: We know that this has been the most ridiculously over-hyped game this season.

What we don’t know: We don’t know if Dallas deserves the hype. If they were in the AFC they’d be the fourth or fifth ranked team at best. Would a team like the Jaguars or Titans trade rosters with Dallas right now? I don’t know if they would.

San Diego -10 vs. Oakland
What we know: We know that under Marty Schottenheimer, the Chargers always ran up the score against the Raiders so laying money on the Chargers during Raider Week was an easy play. We know the Raiders haven’t beaten a good team yet this year. We know that during the during the Charger-Bronco game last week sideline reporter Bonnie Bernstein had ridiculously defined arms with veins popping out of them and had she been a baseball player there would be serious questions to how she came to acquire those guns.

What we don’t know: We don’t know where the hell Shawne Merriman has been this season. He only has three sacks two of which were meaningless ones in the Patriot game. Is Merriman hurt? Does he need the number of Bonnie Bernstein’s “personal trainer”? Do we need to start calling him “Lights Out” again? Is Ted Cotrell dumber than a box of rocks?

Note: If “Lights Out” comes through with a 6 sack performance this weekend forget I asked those questions.

Seattle -6.5 at New Orleans
What we know: We know the Saints can’t defend. And if you watch Inside the NFL, you know that Saints coach Sean Payton owns a hideous pair of disgusting purple jeans. What series of scenarios would have to unfold for a grown man to be at a department store and decide to buy a pair of purple jeans? It’s pretty disturbing.

What we don’t know: We don’t know if Shawn Alexander is a ballerina or a running back. Did you see him tiptoe through the line last week against the Steelers? God, I’d be really pissed if I cared about the Seahawks.

Atlanta +3.5 vs. NYG
What we know: We know Eli Manning is just about due for one of those midseason performances where he goes 12-for-36 with one touchdown and three interceptions that leaves everyone wondering how on earth he could be related to Peyton Manning.

What we don’t know: We don’t know how many times ESPN will show a stressed out Archie with his face in his hands. Chill out dude, you’re watching your son play football not getting tortured by terrorists or something. Is he really that stressed out or is he hamming it up for the cameras? My gut tells me it’s the latter.

Oktoberfest Weekend Recap

Oktoberfest La Mesa was this past weekend so I took Friday off of work and skipped my NFL Picks blog. Sorry about that. But just for the record my picks sucked and they wouldn’t have helped you anyways. Needless to say, this past weekend was a crazy one. Not just because I ate a crap load of food or because I drank an inordinate amount of booze. It was everything else that happened. To prove it to you, here’s a Top 10 List of the Craziest Things That Happened this Weekend:

10. Stanford upsetting USC
Stanford was a 41 point underdog heading into the game at USC and pulled out an amazing 24-23 win. After watching the first few SC games this year I knew they were overrated. While everyone hyped him up as the Next Great SC Quarterback after Palmer and Leinhart, John David Booty just didn’t have the “it” factor going for him. Palmer and Leinhart just looked like a star quarterbacks. John David Booty didn’t have the look. Even his name is goofy. Wouldn’t he just sound better if he went by John Booty or David Booty. Even JD Booty. John David Booty sounds like someone who just tried to assassinate the President.

9. Me not being able to eat as much as I used to
I set the over / under for the number of meat-on-a-sticks I’d eat this weekend at 15. You know how many I ended up eating?

Five.

I know, it was almost as disappointing a performance as John David Booty’s against Stanford this weekend. The surprising thing was the chances that I continued to pass up. I deliberately ate a light lunch on Friday so I could get a meat-on-a-stick later but I passed on the walk home. And again on Saturday, on the way back from trolling around Oktoberfest all I was thinking about was hitting up the meat-on-a-stick stand and when push came to shove, I decided to pass.

What the hell is wrong with me? Would this have happened to Phil Lam 2005 or Phil Lam 2006? Back in the day I would have attacked that stand the way Tony Montana attacked a pile of coke. There would have been no end to me completely gorging myself. Now, I might as well be dead.

8. The Diamondbacks and Rockies advancing to the NLCS
Not only that, both teams swept their opponents in their respective division series. Not only that, but this means that either the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Colorado Rockies are going to represent the National League in the World Series this year. As a Padre fan, you can’t help but think that had the Padres gotten a decent hitter this summer they would have made it to the NLCS and possibly the World Series. Now, unless they make some major moves this offseason, they’ll probably be the third or fourth best team in their division in 2008.

I will now shave with a rusted steak knife.

7. The ungodly number of bad movies I watched
I was battling a little cold on Friday, was semi-hungover / sick on Saturday and drunk on Sunday so when I wasn’t drinking down the street from my house at Oktoberfest or watching football or the baseball playoffs I crashed on the couch, took cold medicine, recovered and watched movies. Here are the movies that I watched:

The Pursuit of Happyness
Freeze Frame
Silent Hill
Talladega Nights
The History of Violence
Babel

Babel is a good movie although it was my second time watching it and I didn’t enjoy it quite as much as the first time (Initial Rating: 8, Rewatchability Rating: 4) and Talladega Nights is OK but outside those two the rest of those movies were below average to plain old bad. To make matters worse as I’m writing this I feel like there was another crappy movie that I watched that must have been so bad that my mind isn’t letting me remember it right now. Since I’m pretty picky about the movies I watch, I watch maybe one bad movie out of five. This weekend out of the six movies that I remember watching, I will never watch four of them ever again. I can’t believe how many bad movies I agreed to watch. Just a disturbing ratio, plain and simple.

6. LSU pulling out a win against Florida
This was the best college football game of the weekend. LSU was down 10 in the fourth quarter and came back and won on some gutsy calls by their head coach. After Florida pulled out to a 24-14 lead I thought the game was over. But somehow LSU came back.

With USC probably out of the mix the best national championship game we can hope for now would probably be LSU-Cal, LSU-Ohio State or LSU-Boston College. Yuck. Needless to say, college football has seen better seasons.

5. Notre Dame winning its first game of the season
Of course they had to knock out UCLA’s quarterback and Jimmy Clausen only threw for 84 yards but hey, a win’s a win.

4. The Cowboys coming from behind to beat the Bills on MNF
3. The Indians eliminating the Yankees from the playoffs
Last night was just a riveting night of television. I kept flipping back between watching the Indians putting away the Yankees and Tony Romo crapping the bed then bringing the Cowboys back to win in the final minutes of the game. To make things more intense, my fantasy team was a couple of points behind heading into the game and I needed Romo to score negative points for me so I was actually rooting for him to throw all those interceptions. It was completely nuts. A crazy night all around. Peter King does a good job of breaking down the night in the Tuesday edition of his MMQB column.

2. The Chargers embarrassing the Broncos 41-3
THE CHARGERS ARE BACK!!!

Err, I mean, they’re still alive.

The crazy part about all of this is that the Chargers play the Raiders this weekend and the winner will have sole possession of first place in the AFC West. So even after their atrocious 1-3 start the Chargers have a good shot at being in first place heading into their bye week. Let’s just hope they don’t screw things up this weekend.

1. El LamGal and I booking a trip to Denver for my 30th Birthday
Tannia wanted to get out of town for my birthday and had a credit at Frontier Airlines. So last night we were looking at places we could go and saw that for some reason all flights for Frontier out of San Diego had a connection at Denver -- if we wanted to fly to Cabo, we had to connect at Denver. San Francisco? Connect at Denver. So we figured: What about going to Denver? When we were looking at restaurants and hotels around the area to see if anything there would entice us, we noticed a hotel that was near the Pepsi Center so obviously I wondered if the Nuggets would be playing the same weekend we were looking to go over there. Turns out, the Nuggets are playing the Knicks that weekend and they had courtside seats available for a reasonable price so I got the tickets, booked the hotel and before you knew it, we were going to Denver to watch the Nuggets-Knicks game on my birthday weekend.

Nuts huh?

There’s crazy and then there’s booking a random trip to Denver on a whim.

(PS- This will be my first time in Denver so if anyone out there knows any good restaurants or hotspots in the area send them my way. I would appreciate any recommendations.)

Give Hoffman a Break!

First off, let me get this out of the way: Trevor Hoffman cost the Padres a playoff birth when he blew two saves in the span of three days. He totally blew it. Had he been able to retire Tony Gwynn Jr. on Saturday or one of the Rockies on Monday, the Pads would be playing Game One of the NLDS in Philly today. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

I wasn’t going to weigh in on this because broke up with the 2007 Padres in late August and Monday was the first time I watched them play in six weeks but all those people on the message boards and talk shows vilifying Hoffman and calling for the Padres trade him or buy out his contract are just driving me nuts. I mean, I was at Nicky Rotten’s for lunch today and I heard some doofus say that they should move Hoffman to the setup role because you can’t have a closer who throws in the mid-80s. I mean, did this jerk even see any one of Hoffman’s 524 saves? Did it look like he could close out a game throwing in the mid-80s? Listen, you don’t get rid of a great closer after he blows a save ok? I don’t care how important the game was. Did the Oakland A’s get rid of Dennis Eckersly after he gave up the homerun to Kirk Gibson in the 1988 World Series? Did the Yankees cut Mariano Rivera after he blew Game 7 of the 2001 World Series? To get rid of Hoffman this off-season would not only be a total knee-jerk reaction, it would be completely ludicrous shoot-yourself-in-the-foot move.

People say “Hoffman isn’t a ‘money closer’ like Rivera.” Yeah, but who is? I take a look around the major leagues and I can’t even name half the closers out there right now. Let’s take a roll call of the five best closers outside of Hoffman and let’s see who we have:

Mariano Rivera: REC 3-4 SV 30 ERA 3.15

John Papelbon: REC 1-3 SV 37 ERA 1.85

Billy Wagner: REC 2-2 SV 34 ERA 2.63

Francisco Rodriguez: REC 5-2 SV 40 ERA 2.81

Jose Valverde: REC 1-4 SV 47 ERA 2.66

Rivera struggled at the beginning of the year and even the most ardent Yankee fan will admit their confidence level in Rivera is not as high as it used to be and Paplebon struggled to end the season -- the second straight year he’s struggled in September. After that you have Billy Wagner, K-Rod, and Jose Valverde-- who looks like he’s either going to be a great closer or go kill someone within the next few years.

What’s my point? My point is that there aren’t any great, lights-out, closers out there right now. They’ve either gotten hurt (Eric Gagne), have gotten old (Rivera, Hoffman) or haven’t arrived yet (Paplebon, Valverde, Joel Zumaya). I mean if you look at that list up there, there are two (TWO!!) proven closers in their prime in all of major league baseball. TWO! So to suggest that the Padres get rid of Trevor Hoffman is just plain absurd.

Does Trevor Hoffman have a penchant for blowing big games? Heck yes he does. There was a hint of it in 1998 when he was one save away from the consecutive save record and blew it by giving up a homerun to Moises Alou. Later that year he took the loss in Game Two of the World Series. And of course, he blew the save in last years All-Star Game (even though I wouldn’t really consider the All-Star Game a “big game”).

Obviously games like those -- and there are many more, are indefensible. But think about this: Unlike Mariano Rivera who pitches for the Yankees where every game is life or death, Hoffman wasn’t really battle tested earlier in his career. Rivera, who was a set-up man for John Wetteland on the 1996 World Series team, has been in the postseason every single year of his career but one. Hoffman didn’t make it to the playoffs until 1996 (his fourth year in the league), was there again in 1998 and didn’t make it back until 2005 and 2006. I mean going from pitching in relative obscurity at Qualcom Stadium and PetCo Park to the postseason is a pretty big leap. It would be like grilling for your family and friends one day and then getting thrown into Hell’s Kitchen the next. I mean it’s really not the same right? I’m not making excuses for Hoffman but maybe if the Padres were a little more competitive earlier in his he would be able to handle these pressure situations a little better.

Whatever the case may be, the Padres are a better team with Trevor Hoffman. I mean, outside of Peavy and Hoffman what does this team really got? Hoffman’s one of the few somebodys in a team full of nobodys. Remember in 2003 when Hoffman missed most of the year and we were subjected to the catastrophe known as Brandon Villafuerte? Most Hoffman critics probably won’t because it was the pre-PetCo days and they probably weren’t Padre fans yet, but Villafuerte was billed as a guy who could handle the closers role for a year while Hoffman was out and he totally, completely, and utterly bombed. That guy gave it up so many times he would have put Paris Hilton to shame. Go see Villafuerte working at the local L&L and he’ll probably tell you that closing isn’t easy.

And who are the Padres going to go with if they get rid of Hoffman anyways? As we talked about above there aren’t too many options out there. Think about it this way: In 2008 they’ll have Heath Bell in the 8th, Hoffman in the 9th and Clay Meridith, Doug Brocail, Joe Thatcher and some transient Towers picks up in the Pilipino League and the Pads will still have one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Trevor Hoffman cost the Padres a playoff birth when he blew two saves in the span of three days.

Let’s not make this a bigger thing than it has to be.

Wiping the Puke Off My Chin

You wanna know how I feel today? I feel like puking my guts out, that’s how I feel. Every time that I’ve read anything about the Chargers over the past week and every time I’ll read something about the Chargers this week I feel like reenacting the “Lard Ass” pie eating contest scene in “Stand By Me.” It literally makes me sick to see how bad these guys are playing. Sick to the stomach.

Hold on for a second (raaaaaaaaalllllllppppppppphhhhhh).

OK, I’m back.

It’s like a bad dream every Sunday now. This week we were subjected to four turnovers (three by Phil Rivers) which directly led to 16 KC points and an embarrassing 30-16 loss to the Chiefs. The offense didn’t score a single point in the second half. The defense continued to stink up the joint. And the loss was punctuated by 65,000 or so pissed-off fans chanting “Marty! Marty!”

How embarrassing.

Up to this point, everything everyone who doubted the Chargers have said is true. Norv Turner can't hack it as head coach, Ted Cotrell is less aggressive as defensive coordinator, Rivers has regressed... and so on and so forth...

Look at what Patriot fan and ESPN columnist Bill Simmons wrote about the Chargers this past Friday:

“The 2007 Chargers have clearly given away their ‘Super Bowl contender’ status and become this year's test case for the time-proven phrase, ‘Coaching matters.’ Which reminds me ...

1. A few readers e-mailed me about this: When Norv Turner was coaching the Raiders in 2005, I created a Norv Turner Second-Half Collapse Checklist. Three games into Norv's tenure with the Chargers, we already have six of the nine categories checked.

• Guys arguing on the sidelines? (CHECK)
• Embarrassing losses at home? (NO)
• QB getting sacked and throwing the ball up for grabs? (CHECK)
• Just an ungodly amount of penalties? (NO)
• Steady stream of excuses? (CHECK)
• Players taking veiled shots at the coaching staff? (CHECK)
• General malaise and dissatisfaction within the fan base? (CHECK)
• Local columnists taking shots at him? (CHECK)
• Big coaching name looming in the background as a replacement? (NO)

(Basically, we're a penalty-filled upset loss to the Chiefs, followed by rumors of Bill Cowher taking over the Chargers, from the entire Norv Turner Second-Half Collapse Checklist getting filled before the baseball playoffs start. I think this is amazing.)

2. A longtime reader named Jason created a Norv-related blog called The Coach is Killing Me, named after the story when my buddy Hopper drove Norv from a blackjack table in Vegas back in May '01 because Norv kept staying on 16 against a 10. He's been hired as a head coach not once but TWICE since I retold this story on ESPN.com. As Herm Edwards would say, clearly, more NFL owners need to have the Internet.

3. Everyone keeps blaming Norv (and with reason), but for whatever reason, defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell hasn't been treated with the same level of scorn. Remember what the Guy Who Knows Things said before the season (in my NFL Preview)?

‘[San Diego] is the perfect storm for bad -- Norv as a head coach and Ted Cottrell as the [defensive coordinator]. You cannot get any worse than that. Consider how Laveranues Coles described Belichick and Mangini this week and you'll feel like Bobby Knight felt every time he faced Dale Brown by not picking Norv and the Chargers: 'They have a very smart coaching staff and we have a very smart coaching staff. They basically use us as chess pieces. How they position us to play this game, that's the main thing now. Whoever can make the adjustments the best and the fastest will probably have the edge.' With Norv and Ted, they cannot beat enough of the good chess players. The game is in the details and they leave too many untouched.’

So what happens to this Chargers team the rest of the way? I see them rebounding with a 4-1 run over the next six weeks (KC, Broncos, OAK, bye, HOUS, minny) before the annual second-half Norv collapse kicks off in November (INDY, jags, BALT, kc, tenn) and we can break out the checklist again. We'll have all the checkmarks filled before Week 15. I promise you.”

Well, after yesterday you can check “Embarrassing Loss at Home” off the list. And if / when they lose this Sunday at Denver they’ll be an unimaginable 1-4 to start the season. This season is quickly turning into a complete and total disaster. We’ve gone from rooting for a Super Bowl title in Week 1 to hoping for an AFC Championship rematch after Week 2 to now, just hoping to survive the regular season and somehow sneak into the playoffs.

I’d like to say it doesn’t get any worse than this, but I’d be lying to you. It could get a lot worse. Stay tuned, if you have the stomach for it…

As for the Padres, they failed miserably at salvaging the weekend for me. They had two shots to clinch a wildcard birth and crapped the bed both times. Saturday, Trevor Hoffman blew a save and they lost in extra innings and yesterday they just got blown out of the water. Hopefully the third time will be a charm as they have Jake Peavy going tonight in a one game playoff against the Rockies for the final wild card spot.

I haven’t been this excited about a one game playoff since the Indians and Yankees went at it in the original Major League. Had Bud Black gone with Greg Maddux while a bummed out Peavy got drunk at a bar and then slept with Brian Giles’s insanely insane wife the game tonight would have the similar feel of that game.

Here’s to the Padres making the playoffs!

And unless the chaotic happens (chaotic in this instance would mean Jake Peavy giving up like 25 runs on 53 hits), The Khalil Green All-Stars (the fantasy baseball team run by my Cousin Jimmy and I) will officially clinch our league tonight. Woot!

At least I will have won something this weekend.

Week 4 Picks

I’ve been so busy at work this week that I haven’t had the time to weigh in and rant on Drew Brees ruining my chance at winning the office pool with his four interception, one fumble performance on Monday night; the Lakers potentially trading Lamar Odom and Brian Cook for Shawn Marion; or Brian Giles’ go-ahead three run homer in the ninth to win the game for the Pads on Tuesday. I also didn’t have the time to do as much research as I’d like in picking these games so you’re getting the Ryan Leaf effort this week instead of the Jake Peavy effort. Sorry about that, but God knows this blog isn’t paying the bills.

Here are the picks (team listed first is the team that I picked):

LAY THESE ON THE WAY TO YOUR BETTORS ANNONYMUS MEETING:

Cleveland +4.5 vs. Baltimore
I said it before the season started and I’ll say it again: Baltimore isn’t very good this season. That’s all I have to say. Told you you’re getting the Ryan Leaf effort this week.

Houston -4 at Atlanta
Get ready for the deluge of features Sunday morning about Matt Schaub returning to Atlanta to face the Falcons. While we’re here, is there a more unsurprising story than Michael Vick failing a drug test for pot? The guy is about to go to the clink, he’s suspended from the NFL, and when all is said and done between the cost of lawyers, and loss of salaries and endorsement money, he’s going to be out about $100 million. What do you want him to do, skip down the street? I would have been more surprised if there was a story that said Michael Vick hasn’t been toking it up.

Miami -3.5 vs. Oakland
Holy crap! I just realized that Daunte Culpepper is going back to Miami to play against the Dolphins this week, Jamal Lewis is returning to Baltimore, Matt Schaub will be playing in Atlanta, and Donnie Edwards will be returning to play against the Chargers. Plus you got the two Arizona coaches facing their old team. Did the NFL plan this or something? Hopefully Kenny Mayne doesn’t notice so we can avoid being tortured with a “Mayne Event” about this.

ALMOST TOO CLOSE TO CALL:

Philly -3.5 at New York Giants
How’d you like that bounce-back performance for McNabb last week? 381 yards and four touchdown passes. Yup, nothing like throwing the race card out there to get yourself motivated. After I’m done with this blog I’m ripping off an “Asian auditors are subject to more scrutiny than white auditors” email and sending it company-wide to motivate myself to get back to work.

Seattle -2.5 at San Francisco
This game is definitely way too close to call. Frisco looks like it has the potential to be a good team but just isn’t quite there yet, and I haven’t really been impressed with the Seahawks so far this year. But the Seahawks are on the road, Alexander is hurt, and Frisco beat the Seahawks twice last year so you know what? I’m going with…

Frisco +2.5 vs. Seattle.

There. Much better.

Tampa Bay +3 at Carolina
Even though the Panthers are favored, I’m not so sure they’re the better team. The Bucs barely lost to the Seahawks and easily handled the Saints and Rams while the Panthers barely beat the Rams, got killed by the Texans and needed that DeAngelo Hall meltdown to beat the Falcons.

UNDERDOG SPECIALS

Minnesota +3.5 vs. Green Bay
The ratio for teams beating the Chargers and then having me pick against them the following week must be like 326-1.

Detroit +2.5 vs. Chicago
I don’t think Vegas has caught on to how crappy the Bears are yet. Half their defense is hurt, their running back is a wuss, their receivers are terrible and they just benched their quarterback for Brian Griese.

Remember, signs of desperation include: searching your couch cushions for change so you can afford to buy booze, stealing from your family or friends, smoking a cigarette that someone has already put out, hooking up with a fat chick (well unless you’re into that type of thing), and benching your starting quarterback for Brian Griese.

Arizona +7 vs. Pittsburg
Do you think there’s anyway ex-Steeler coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm are going to let Pittsburg come into their home stadium and beat their team by more than seven points? I don’t either.

SCOT WRIGHT SPECIALS

Dallas -14 vs. St. Louis
This line looks almost too easy. The Cowboys are on a roll and Steven Jackson is out for the Rams. Also, this week Marc Bulger revealed that he’s been playing with two broken ribs. Thanks pal. Maybe next time you can tell me that before you score negative points for my fantasy team. Jerk!

San Diego -11.5 vs. Kansas City
My uncle Steve from Scripps Ranch asks: “San Diego teams are pathetic. Is it because of the weather?”

Yeah, I guess it’s kind of hard to worry about winning and losing when you live in a city where during the fall and winter seasons the temperature fluctuates between 75 and 63 degrees. Not to mention the fact that as a collective group our women make women from almost every other city look like livestock.

Yup, let me tell you, it’s a tough to maintain that competitive edge in this type of an environment.

FREE MONEY

New England -7 at Cincinnati
As much as I like Cincy I can’t see them staying with the Patriots for four quarters. This game will be competitive for about a half then Bilichick will go in, decipher the Bengals’ signals and the Patriots will blow them away.

(No, “Camera-Gate” jokes are not yet old)

New York -3.5 at Buffalo
The Jets will be facing a defense decimated by injuries and an offense with a rookie running back and a rookie second round draft pick at quarterback making his NFL debut.

Indy -10.5 vs. Denver
Quite frankly, despite their 2-1 record, I don’t think the Broncos are very good.

With nothing else to add, I went 10-6 last week against the spread which was my best week this season but I lost the office pool to a Pilipino lady in Accounting and went 0-3 on my parlay. Kill me now!

Sunday Bloody Sunday

Are you still spitting out blood? Still feel a little woozy? Is your jaw as sore as mine?

After a summer spent dreaming about a potentially euphoric fall -- the Padres making it to the World Series and the Chargers making a Super Bowl run, San Diego sports fans got woken up by a Chuck Liddell right hook combo to the chin this Sunday. In the morning we saw the Chargers, continuing to look disoriented on both offense and defense, lose to the Packers and drop to 1-2. About an hour later we saw Milton Bradley on first base jawing with umpire Mike Winters and Todd Helton with a smug smile on his face. The situation continued to escalate and a few pitches later the bizarre happened: Bradley exploded and started to charge Winters. And when Bud Black ran out to restrain him, Bradley fell awkwardly, hurt his knee, and had to be helped off the field. Bradley later said that Winters baited him by calling him “a fucking piece of shit” but in the end it didn’t matter. The damage had been done. The Padres eventually lost the game, got swept by the Rockies and pretty much ended any hopes we had of a third straight division title.

The next day, the carnage looked like this:

Milton Bradley: torn ACL, out for the year.

Mike Cameron: torn ligament in right thumb, out for the remainder of the regular season.

Padres (after a 4-9 drubbing Monday night): three games behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West; tied for the Wild Card lead with the Phillies.

Chargers: 1-2 tied for last in the AFC West.

Chargers Offense: ranked 27th in the NFL

Chargers Defense: ranked 22nd in the NFL

LaDanian Tomlinson: Averaging 2.3 yards per carry.

As a shaken and saddened Don Corleone asked after Sonny got shot: “How did it come to this?”

For the Padres, the answer is simple. They spent the summer avoiding their obvious weakness-- that huge LenDale White sized hole in the middle of their lineup, and put all their chips into one basket with a volatile player who couldn’t stay healthy. Hey, I was all for the Bradley trade saying at the time that he was immediately the second best hitter on the team. But maybe Kevin Towers should have hedged his bets a little. I mean, was anyone really surprised that Bradley blew up at the umpire or blew out his knee? Maybe we didn’t expect it to happen all within the span of 45 seconds but was anyone really surprised? Everyone’s heard a variation of the parable about the snake and the old man where the old man nurtures a sick snake back to health, the snake bites him, the old man asks why, and the snake says well you knew all along I was a snake. Well, with Milton Bradley the Padres knew he was volatile. And the Padres knew he was injury prone. It was just a matter of time before they got bitten.

For the Chargers the questions are more complex:

Did the Chargers come into the season too overconfident?

Did the players believe too much of their own hype?

Was last season a fluke?

Are they overrated?

Was this season lost in January when they should have fired Schottenheimer and promoted Wade Phillips?

Is Norv Turner Satan reincarnated?

I don’t know the answers to these questions but I do know that their offensive and defensive lines got pushed around for the second week in a row. I know that their defensive backs missed a ton of tackles. I know that they miss the hell out of Matt Whilhelm. I know that they hardly blitz anymore. I know that Clinton Hart should get benched for Eric Weddle. I know that Shawne Merriman should go see if Ken Caminiti has any Snickers bars stashed somewhere. And I know that their running game -- their bread and butter last year, is absolutely terrible.

And their offense doesn’t skip any downs. I heard Ron Jaworski say this about the Saints last night and I thought it also rung true for the Chargers. Its first down, second down, and third down with these guys every single drive this year whereas last year it was first down: 15 yard run, first down again: 8 yard run, second and two: 5 yard run, first down again: 15-yard pass… Put me on the list of people who thought the Chargers offense would improve under Norv Turner (and maybe it still will) but right now they are hapless. It’s one thing to get pushed around by the Patriots but the Packers? The Chargers faced a dozen defenses better than the Packers last season and ran them over no problem. And the biggest surprise of them all is that LT doesn’t remotely resemble LT that we’ve all come to know and love.

Is there an end to this madness?

Well the baseball regular season is over on Sunday so we’ll find out about the Padres soon enough. But even if they make the playoffs are they going to do anything with an outfield of Scott Hariston, Jason Lane, and Brian Giles? Chris Young is hurt, Maddux got rocked last time out and Peavy really hasn’t proved himself in the playoffs or any big game for that matter. The best case scenario for the Pads is that they go on a 2006 Cardinals-type run which isn’t that far fetched considering they play in a league where last year, the starting pitchers for game seven of its championship game were Jeff Supan and Oliver Perez. I mean, who’s the favorite in the National League right now? The Mets? Cubs? Phillies? Diamondbacks? None of those teams scare me-- even without Milton Bradley. So all the Pads have to do is get into the dance and we’ll see what’s what.

For the Chargers, who would have thought this weekend’s game against the Chiefs would be such a huge game for them. After that they’ll complete the AFC West gauntlet by facing the Broncos in Denver (another suddenly huge game) and the Raiders. If they can get through those games they’ll be 4-2 going into their bye with games against the Texans and Vikings afterwards so they can still come out of this thing looking pretty decent. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The goal this season is the Super Bowl. Doesn’t matter what they do or how they get there.

So there you have it. You never want to take it on the chin like we did this weekend but it’s not over yet. One of the things about being a sports fan is that even when you take it on the chin, you have no choice but to get back up.

Picks on a Plane

After the Monday Night Football game the other night El LamGal and I were trolling On-Demand for a movie to watch and on a whim I selected Snakes on a Plane. I heard about the movie when it first came out and I heard that critics panned it, so I wasn’t quite sure what to expect-- well, other than snakes on a plane of course. 90 minutes later, not only was I pleasantly surprised but I couldn’t believe more people aren’t talking about this movie. I mean, there was suspense, there was high-comedy, there was a gratuitous sex scene that also included drug use, and most importantly, there was Samuel L. Jackson who was absolutely perfect for his roll. Yes it was corny. Yes it was predictable. And yes, it was definitely over-the-top. But you know what? That was the whole point of the movie. I absolutely loved it! How can anyone pan a movie like this?

Later, after thinking about it, I came to the conclusion that there are two kinds of people in this world: Those who like Snakes on a Plane and those who take themselves a little too seriously. Not coincidentally, the people in the latter group are probably the same people who: denigrate a waitress because they think they’re getting bad service, listen to classical music, order things at Starbucks like a “sugar free triple grande macchiato upside down with low fat whip cream and two pumps of caramel”, can’t take a joke, don’t understand sarcasm, only have sex with the lights off, are named “Skip Bayless”, and walk funny because they have their heads up their asses.

I mean, there’s nothing wrong with doing those things. It just kind of shows everyone else where you in life.

Don’t get me wrong. By no means is Snake on a Plane a cinematic masterpiece , but how can you not be entertained by Samuel L. Jackson in his Samuel L. Jackson voice saying things like: "Do as I say and you live"? And of course when he screamed the movie’s catchphrase: "I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!" I completely lost it. You can say what you want, but I will defend the comic merits of Samuel L. Jackson until the day I die --especially his performance in Snakes on a Plane. What a riot.

What does all of this have to do with my NFL picks you ask? Not much other than the fact that I went 7-9 last week and I have had it with these motherfucking picks on this motherfucking blog!
Here are the picks as well as some tidbits from Snakes on a Plane (team I listed first is the team that I picked):

LAY THESE ON THE WAY TO YOUR BETTORS ANNONYMUS MEETING:

Oakland -3 vs. Cleveland
The cruelest part of Snakes on a Plane was when an uptight British guy in a suit, throws Mary-Kate, the rich girl’s dog, towards a giant snake so that it would get eaten as the uptight British guy was trying to escape, and then yelling “You would have done the same thing!” Similarly, the cruelest part of Week 2 was when the Raiders were about to beat Denver and the Broncos call a timeout just before Sebastian Janakowski makes what would have been the game winner and on the next attempt the kick bounces off the goal post. What a way to lose a game. In any matter, I feel just as strongly about the fact that Mary-Kate should have lived as I do about the fact that the Raiders should have beaten the Broncos.

Atlanta +4.5 vs. Carolina
God only knows how you could give up 31 unanswered points to the Texans but the Panthers did it. When the Texans were down 14-0 I thought they were dead in the water. This reminds me of the time in Snakes on the Plane when they thought Rick the co-pilot was dead but it turned out he was alive. Unfortunately, though he died about 30 minutes later. Anyways, it was characters like Rick that made this movie so good with lines like:

“We're in a two-hundred foot aluminum tube and we're thirty thousand feet in the air, and any one of those slimy little pieces of shit can trip a circuit or a relay or a hydraulic and this bird goes down faster than a Thai hooker. So my job is to keep LAX informed on how totally screwed we are and then find some way to keep this mother in the sky another two hours. Figure that out.”

And

Rick: “Oh my, I was hoping you'd be the sky-candy on this flight. You're looking especially delicious this evening.”

Juliana Margulies: “I love it when you demean me, Rick.” Rick: “My pleasure.”

Rick also says something to Juliana Margulies like “you’d be surprised at what a guy can do with one hand” when she asks if he can fly the plane with one hand and tries to get her to take off her shirt after he gets bitten by a snake. Unfortunately, she doesn’t.

NYJ-3 vs. Miami
Miami’s offense looks putrid turning the ball over five times against the Cowboys last week.

Speaking of putrid, remember the landlady in King Pin? The one who has Woody Harrelson puking after he sleeps with her so he doesn’t have to pay rent? Well, she’s the senior flight attendant on the plane in Snakes on a Plane. And if you’ve seen King Pin and can get through Snakes on a Plane without picturing her doing the “tongue-through-the peace sign” thing, than you’re a better man than me.

Kansas City -2 vs. Minnesota
TAVARAS JACKSON ON THE ROAD ALERT! TAVARAS JACKSON ON THE ROAD ALERT!

My favorite side character(s) in Snakes on a Plane would have to be rapper Three G’s and his two bodyguards -- one played by SNL’s Keenan Thompson. But the only problem I had with Snakes on a Plane was when Three G’s flips out because there was no air circulating through the plane and takes Samuel L. Jackson’s gun and starts pointing it at everyone. The problem I had is, when Keenan Thompson is trying to calm him down, Samuel L. Jackson quickly grabs his gun back but doesn’t shoot Three G’s. I mean, the guy just flipped out and almost shot everyone because the freaking air conditioning didn’t work! Why wouldn’t you just cap his ass?

I’ll go along with the fact that they were somehow able to load hundreds of poisonous snakes on a plane, I’ll believe that Keenan Thompson can land a plane after only playing a flight simulator on Play Station 2, but don’t tell me Samuel L. Jackson doesn’t cap Three G’s in that situation because I’m just not going to buy it ok? I’m just not.

ALMOST TO CLOSE TO CALL:

Pittsburg -8.5 vs. San Francisco
Sadly, Pittsburg was the only team in my four team parlay that covered last week and they kicked about 5 field goals that should have been touchdowns. As for Frisco, they were able to hold off the Rams, but statistically they have the worst offense in the NFL right now so I don’t think Alex Smith is going to do so well on the road against the Steelers defense.

Speaking of San Francisco, another funny part about Snakes on a Plane is this effeminate flight attendant that does gay things like volunteer to suck the venom out of out one of Three G’s bodyguard’s butt, but then at the end of the movie he gets off the plane and basically dry humps his smoking hot girlfriend. Great times!

Philly -6.5 vs. Detroit
You think Snake on a Plane was over the top? Snakes on a Plane would look like a documentary next to this comment by Lion quarterback Dan Orlovsky about John Kitna: “Indy can have Peyton and New England can have Tom, but we wouldn't trade this guy for anyone in the world.”

As for the game, Philly looked awfully bad Monday night against the Redskins and this week McNabb started in with the “black quarterbacks are scrutinized more than white quarterbacks” talk. I thought we were over that like three years ago. What does he think this is, 2004? My guess is he’s trying to draw attention away from his fantasy performance this year as he’s absolutely killing everyone that has him. And if you read a headline in the next couple of days reading “Mexican Girl Slices McNabb’s Tendons” it wasn’t El LamGal ok?

UNDERDOG SPECIALS

Arizona +7.5 at Baltimore
After a poor showing in Week 1, Matt Leinhart had a nice bounce-back game throwing for 299 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens, on the other hand, don’t look too good. They lost to the Bengals Week 1, and would have lost to the Jets had it not been for a dropped pass. Steve McNair looks like a shell of his old self, they can’t throw the ball downfield and Willis McGahee looks like he is about a month away from purposely failing a drug test so he doesn’t have to run behind that atrocious line.

With nothing else to say here, check out this funny line Samuel L. Jackson said at the 2006 MTV Movie awards: “No movie shall triumph over Snakes on a Plane. Unless I happen to feel like making a movie called More Motherfucking Snakes on More Motherfucking Planes.”

Jacksonville +3 at Denver
Mike Shanahan’s savvy / borderline unethical move of stoning Janakowski was nothing compared to Snakes on a Plane and Eddie Kim’s plan to load poisonous snakes on a plane going from Hawaii to LA and put pheromone on the leis they give out to the passengers to make the snakes go crazy in order to kill a witness that was supposed to testify against him. Only an Asian criminal mastermind would go to such great lengths to eliminate a witness. Forget car bombs. Forget going after your family. We’re going to have poisonous snakes kill everyone in hopes of sinking the plane in the middle of the Pacific Ocean so you won’t testify. What a diabolical genius.

Like Samuel L. Jackson said, “They did the ONE thing that they didn't train us for in the FBI... they put SNAKES on the PLANE!”

(Alright, no more Snakes on a Plane references. Let’s just get through these picks)

Cincinnati +3.5 at Seattle
Sometime last week I read that the Bengals were really banged up on defense after a physical Week 1 Monday Night Football game against the Ravens. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to deter me from putting scratch on them on Sunday. Yup, I’m an idiot. I’m predicting that this will be a bounce back game for Bengals. Either that or Matt Hasselbeck will throw for like 600 yards and 8 touchdowns against them.

SCOT WRIGHT SPECIALS (seemingly easy picks that could end up screwing your parlay):

Tampa Bay -4 vs. St. Louis
How about that win for my 2007 Sleeper Team! Too bad I didn’t pick Tampa over the Saints last week. As for the Rams, it’s never a good sign when your team is playing “Shuffle the Line” by Week 2. With Orlando Pace out they have right tackle Alex Barron moving over to left tackle, with Milford Brown and Adam Goldberg as candidates to replace Barron. Marc Bulger is probably pretty happy that he signed that big contract at the beginning of the season. Or maybe he’s not because the Rams look like they’re going to be crappy for the next 2-3 years. I don’t know. Let’s just move on.

New England -16.5 vs. Buffalo
After the win last week there is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots are going to go 16-0 this season and win the Super Bowl. Whether Belichick knows what the defense is about to do or not, Tom Brady looks great and Randy Moss could very well get over 2,000 receiving and continue his torrid pace of touchdown receptions and end up with 32 this season. Their defense looks terrific and will be even better when Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour return. The Chargers have no chance of winning this year. We should just trade LT for a bunch of draft picks and start building for the 2012 season when hopefully, Bridget Moynihan trains their five year old son to assassinate Tom Brady because she’s still bitter he better-dealt her for Gisele Bundchen.

And for the record in no way, shape, or form am I trying to reverse jinx the soon-to-be undefeated, 16-0, perfect, New England Patriots.

New Orleans -4 vs. Tennessee
The shine will definitely be off their 2006 season if the Saints lose this game. The thing about the Saints is that Peyton Manning and Jeff Garcia killed them with the deep ball and I’m not so sure Vince Young has the arm to do the same.

San Diego -4.5 at Green Bay
You’d think the Chargers would be extra motivated to go into Green Bay, face a young defense and a quarterback that’s been regressing over the past 5 years and just blow them out of the water. So why did I put under them under Scot Wright Special? It’s because of comments like this from Norv Turner when asked about why he didn’t go with his nickel or dime packages against the Patriots’ spread offense: “Our thought was to go keep our best guys on the field. We thought we could handle it that way.”

That one made me slam my head against my desk. Repeatedly. It took me about the first four plays to realize that the Chargers couldn’t handle the Patriots spread offense with their base package and I was at least 10 drinks deep. When do you ever handle the spread offense with your base package? Anyone who’s ever played football on a video game console in the past 10 years knows this. Can someone Fed-Ex Norv Turner a copy Madden 2008? Did Turner really think Stephen Cooper would be able to cover Wes Welker? Crap like this is why I’m a little hesitant about picking the Chargers this week.

Who am I kidding? I’m throwing the Chargers down on a parlay with one or two of these teams:

FREE MONEY:

Washington -3 vs. New York
The atrocious defense that that’s being overshadowed by the Bengals atrocious defense is the Giants D. They let Tony Romo throw for like 400 yards and made Brett Farve look like Brett Farve circa 1998. Their offensive line is beat up, their running back is hurt, and I think the Giants are about few weeks away from just quitting. Without a doubt, Tom Coughlin is the frontrunner for the “2007 Coach I wouldn’t want to be” award after narrowly losing out to Art Shell last year. The Redskins on the other hand look really good. They have two good running backs, two good receivers, and a really good defense. Had I known that McNabb would’ve crapped the bed this season I would have picked the Redskins to win the division instead of the wildcard.

Dallas +3 at Chicago
Dallas a three point underdog on the road against the Bears is free money you ask? The Bears have scored two touchdowns this season: One by a punt returner and the other by an offensive lineman. Take the points and thank me in the morning.

Indy -6.5 at Houston
The Texans have the look of a JV player who’s about to get smacked around once he gets bumped up to the varsity. Wins over KC and the Panthers were nice but to quote Wolf from Pulp Fiction, “let’s not start sucking each others popsicles just yet.” If the Colts bring their “A” game on Sunday-- and they will because the both teams are 2-0 and the Texans beat them in Houston last year, the Texans are going to get punked.