2007 NFL Preview

Before we get to the football preview I have a couple of house keeping items to take care of. An anonymous reader correctly points out that in my “Deconstructing the Patriots” blog I said that Gerald Green was the defensive end for the Patriots when I really meant Ty Warren. Gerald Green was the Celtic who got traded for Kevin Garnett. Somehow I got them confused. Sorry about that. I should be dragged out back and beaten to a bloody pulp.

The same anonymous reader goes on to say: “Your logic of ‘The Patriots went out and signed these players b/c they 'knew' the Chargers were 3 TDs better’ is so backwards, but it does set an appropriate tone for the rest of your backwards analysis. Perhaps they look to improve their football team on a yearly basis? Regardless of what another team in another division did last year.”

Seems like this guy missed the point of the blog. I wasn’t criticizing the Patriots for trying to improve their team; they always make a move to improve their team. My point was that they took chances on players like Randy Moss that they never would have considered in the past. In the Patriots’ heyday they KNEW they could beat teams like the Steelers and Colts and they didn’t need to trade for guys like Moss-- an injury prone malcontent who admits he doesn’t play hard every game, or to draft guys like Brandon Merriweather. Think about it, Terrell Owens was available the year after they won their second Super Bowl and the Patriots didn’t even look in his direction. Likewise do you think the Patriots would have traded for Moss if they would have won the Super Bowl last year? Probably not. But after they lucked out in the Charger game and had nothing in the second half of the Colts game they knew they weren’t head and shoulders the best team in the Conference anymore. And while the Chargers didn’t do anything because they knew they had a championship-caliber team, the Patriots knew they had to take chances on players they otherwise wouldn’t have in order to get/stay on that level. Desperate teams do desperate things. The Chargers didn’t have to take any chances this offseason and the Patriots did. That was my point.

Not really backwards if you think about it.

Now that’s out of the way…

With apologies to Peter King, these are the 10 Things I Think I Think about the 2007 NFL Season:

1. I think these are the teams that are vastly overrated: Patriots (uncertainty in the secondary, their linebackers and receivers still aren’t that good), Saints (still not a Drew Brees believer and they have a putrid defense), 49ers (injury prone RB and the loss of Norv Turner), and Broncos (second year QB in a division with strong defenses)

And these are the teams that are vastly underrated: the Jaguars (great D and strong running game), Redskins (Jason Cambell’s a potential fantasy sleeper), Buccaneers (more on this later), Jets (any friend of Tony Soprano is a friend of mine) and Rams (most talented players in tossup division).

2. I think LT is going to win consecutive MVP awards, rush for over 2,000 yards and will break the touchdown record he set last season. And Shawne “Lights Out” Merriman will win the Defensive Player of the Year Award and break the single-season sack record.

For Offensive ROY I’ll go with Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and for Defensive ROY I’ll remain a homer and go with the Chargers’ Eric Weddle.

3. I think the Buccaneers were the most impressive team during the preseason. I’m not kidding you about this. I’ve watched good chunks of three of their preseason games and each time they did something that impressed me. It makes sense if you think about it. They seriously upgraded their quarterback position and now have Jeff Garcia quarterback who thrives in the west coast offense and who’s not going to kill them with mistakes. Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman are a good 1-2 punch in the backfield so they’ll be able to run the rock. They have Joey Galloway and up and comer Maurice Stovall at wide out and they signed the DUI-machine Jeremy Stevens at tight end so they have some receiving options. On defense, I like Gaines Adams. They have oldies but goodies in Derrick Brooks, Rhonde Barber and Phil Buchannan and they just signed Jeremiah Trotter over the weekend. You combine all of this with the fact that Jon Gruden is on the hot seat and what do you have? A bona-fide sleeper team that no one else is picking. Mark it down!

4. I think the NFC West is a total crapshoot. You can put any team in that division in any slot and make a solid, rational, argument for why they’ll finish there. I’ll use the Rams as an example since my friend Scot is supposedly a huge Rams fan even though everyone knows that deep down inside, in places he doesn’t like to talk about at parties, the Chargers are his favorite team.

You could say:

The Rams look like they can win 10-12 games this year and take the division. They have a solid quarterback and superstars at the running back and wide receiver positions. Their defensive line has immensely improved with Adam Carricker in the mix and as long as Leonard Little thinks before he drinks. Dante Hall brings a dimension to the Rams return game that they haven’t had since Az Hakim.

Or you could say:

Orlando Pace is on his last legs. Likewise, Isaac Bruce shouldn’t be a starting receiver for a playoff team anymore. Randy McMichael is a disappointment in fantasy football and in real life football. Remember Fakhir Brown? He used to play cornerback for the Chargers. I thought I saw him behind the deli counter at Vons the other day but I was wrong; he’s the Rams starting cornerback. The Rams’ linebackers are small and it will be tough in a division with Shawn Alexander and Frank Gore. They’re a .500 team at best and a Stephen Jackson hamstring pull away from being 4-12.

See what I mean? A complete tossup. I swear, you can do this for every one of those teams in that division.

5. I think from top to bottom the AFC North is the toughest division in the NFL. The Bengals, Steelers and Ravens are all teams that could make noise in the playoffs and if the Browns ever got their quarterback situation figured out they’d be decent team. (They have solid line, good wide outs and some playmakers on defense). The Steelers probably have the most well rounded team in that division, but I went with the Bengals because they will have a healthy Carson Palmer for an entire year and their offense will be absolutely ridiculous this year.

6. I think I had the Jaguars winning the AFC Central this year until they released Byron Leftwich over the weekend. I really like their RB tandem of Maurice-Jones Drew (or as I like to call him Moe-Joe Drew) and Fred Taylor, and I think their defense is rock-solid-physical. Plus I think the Colts are going to struggle this year. They play the Patriots and Chargers back-to-back. They always struggle against the run and play teams thrive on running the rock like Denver and Carolina. Plus they always struggle against the Jaguars and they usually split against the Texans and Titans. So assuming they lose to the Patriots and Chargers, they split against Denver / Carolina, and they split against the Jags, Texans and Titans you’re looking at a 10-6 team. Now what if they have a slipup and lose to the Saints on Thursday or to a team like the Ravens? Suddenly you’re looking at a 9-7 record, you’re a borderline playoff team, and maybe, just maybe the Jags can sneak right in there and win the division.

But it’s going to be tough now with David Garrard at the helm…. wait a minute… um, you know what?

Screw it. I’m sticking with my guns and going with the Jags to win the division even with Garrard at QB.

7. I think these are how the standings will look at the end of the season:

AFC Central
Jaguars
Colts
Texans
Titans

AFC East
Patriots
Jets
Bills
Dolphins

AFC North
Bengals
Steelers
Ravens
Browns

AFC West
Chargers
Raiders
Broncos
Chiefs

NFC Central
Bears
Lions
Vikings
Packers

NFC East
Eagles
Redskins
Dallas
Giants

NFC South
Buccaneers
Panthers
Saints
Falcons

NFC West
Rams
Cardinals
49ers
Seahawks

Wild Cards: Colts, Steelers, Redskins, Cardinals

8. I think I hate reading predictions where the writer pretty much picks the same exact team that won the division last year to win the division again this year. Look at this Why-o who picked the same division winners as last year in all but one division and picked Denver and St Louis to be the only new teams in the playoffs this year. I read Don Bank’s columns all the time but he didn’t exactly go out on a limb with his picks. When will prognosticators realize that unlike baseball, that’s not how the NFL works and its reason #23 why the NFL is so gosh darn great.

And since we’re on the topic, ESPN the Magazine, Merrill Hodge, and Eric Allen are the only people / magazines I’ve read so far that picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl. Not since Sean Salisbury’s performance in The Benchwarmers have I seen something so egregious. Except for a couple of guys who picked the Ravens and SI who picked the Chargers to lose to the Saints, everyone else picked the Patriots. What a joke.

9. I think my fantasy sleepers this year are: Kevin Curtis, Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jackson, Adrian Peterson of the Bears, Vincent Jackson, Phil Rivers, Cadillac Williams, Dante Culpepper and Jason Campbell.

And my fantasy busts are: Cedric Benson, Marquis Colston, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Drew Brees, Randy Moss, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler.

By the way, my fantasy team name this year is “Chillaxing” after what UFC Champion Rampage Jackson said he was gong to do after he beat Chuck Lidell in May. And in case you’re wondering I have Kevin Curtis, Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jackson and Adrian Peterson of the Bears on my team.

And in case you’re still wondering here’s what my fantasy team looks like: QB- Tony Romo, RB- Lawrence Maroney, RB- Brandon Jacobs, WR- Chad Johnson, WR- Tory Holt, TE- Chris Cooley, RB/WR- Jerious Norwood, WR/TE- Chad Curtis, D- Jaguars, K- Mike Nugent, B- Matt Leinhart, Brandon Jackson, Adrian Peterson.

God help me if I don’t win the Bada Bing! this year.

10. I think this year is going to be the Chargers’ year!

It’s going to be the Chargers and Patriots in AFC Championship Game, the Eagles and Bears in the NFC Championship Game with the Chargers beating the Eagles in Arizona and February 3rd 2008 will forever be remembered as The Day San Diego (Finally) Wins a Championship in a Major Sport.