Thursday, September 6, 2007

Week 1 Picks

I’ve always wondered how I’d fare against other gamblers when it came to picking against the spread. We’ll I’m about to find out. This year, I’m playing in the Bill Simmons / ESPN Pick’em Challenge. I’ll be blogging my picks each week a la Simmons and comparing how I do with other readers, most of whom are sure to gamblers themselves. Something tells me this is going to end with me maxing out three credit cards and moving in with my dad, brother and Cousin Jimmy.

Anyways here are my picks (team listed first is the team that I picked):

LAY THESE ON THE WAY TO YOUR BETTORS ANNOYNMOUS MEETING

Oakland -2.5 at Detroit
This will be the Josh McCown Bowl or as I’ll call it, “Crapfest 2007.” My litmus tests any time two bottom-of-the-barrel teams meet are:

1. Which is the team with the better defense? Since in any Crapfest, the team with the better defense will cause more turnovers, make more stops, and have the upper hand in wacky plays that invariably affect the outcome of the games when bottom-of-the-barrel teams meet.

2. Which is the team in the better division / conference? I call this the “Bigger Bully Theory” and it goes a little something like this: The whimp who gets beat up by a bigger bully will always beat up the whimp who gets beat up by a lesser bully since the whimp who gets beat up by the bigger bully will be a better fighter simply because he’s been beat up by a better bully…. Hopefully that makes sense.

In this instance the Raiders win both litmus tests.

Kansas City +1.5 at Houston
I watched Hard Knocks last night and came to one conclusion: The Chiefs suck. The last episode featured Tyrone Brackenridge screwing up in every way possible and somehow, at the end of the episode he makes the team! If Brackenridge can’t cover Marques Hagans, I can’t wait to see how he does against Vincent Jackson.

In any matter since Larry Johnson probably won’t tear his ACL until Week 4, and since Damon Huard did win some games for them last year I’m willing to take the points and KC against a Texan team that is perpetually rebuilding.

Atlanta -2.5 at Minnesota
If there’s a candidate for the first NFL game ever where no passing plays are called this is it. I don’t know if Matt Vasgersian is announcing football games this year but this one has his name written all over it. It’s Joey Harrington! Against Tavaris Jackson! Next! On Fox!

I’m went with the Falcons simply because they have a new coach although the more I think about it I probably should have went with the home team and taken the points.

I’m such an idiot.

St. Louis -1.5 vs. Carolina
If there was a football purgatory Carolina would be in it. They’re not quite good enough to be Super Bowl contenders but they’re not bad enough to where they should seriously start to rebuild. I went with the Rams at home on this one.

ALMOST TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Baltimore
I’m going with the Bengals on this one because:

1. Steve McNair is a pubic hair away from being done. If this were a game of HORSE he’d have a D-O-N.
2. The Ravens defense is getting kind of old.
3. The Bengals always seem to play well against the Ravens.

Arizona +3.5 at San Francisco
I think Frisco is overrated this year. Arizona has a better quarterback, better receivers, a better line and they just upgraded from Dennis Green to Ken Whisenhunt which is like going dumpster diving for dinner one night and then going to Ruth’s Chris the next.

By the way, the headline no one was talking about this offseason but should have been talking about would be “Overexposed Quarterbacks Having Kids with Their Ex-Girlfriends.” First Matt Leinhart and then Tom Brady. What’s the quarterback equivalent of getting the goalie pulled from you? Sadly, I spent the past 20 minutes thinking about this but couldn’t come up with anything. Horrible.

NY Giants +3.5 at Dallas
Something tells me this is going to be a three point game won by a field goal on the final play of the game. It just has that kind of smell.

UNDERDOG SPECIALS

NY Jets +5.5 vs. New England
New England will be without their two defensive stalwarts Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour, and Randy Moss didn’t play a single down for them in the preseason. Couple that with the fact that the Jets can run the ball now that they have Thomas Jones and the fact that Eric Mangini always looks to trump his mentor, plus the fact that the Jets are playing at home against a division rival and what do you get? Something a little closer than a five point game.

Tampa Bay +6.5 at Seattle
I can give you reasons why I picked the Buccaneers to cover but I think it would just be better if we called this one the “I’m backing my sleeper team this season” pick and call it a paragraph.

Tennessee +5.5 at Jacksonville
This one also has that “three point game” smell to it. I can see the Jags running the ball, Vince Young running around a bit and a disgusting final score of something like 15-12. Anyways, if Vegas took bets on things like “Team that Vince Young gets injured against” I would go with the Jags. Just wanted to make sure I got that on record before Young misses the next six to eight weeks with a partially torn MCL.

TREAD CAREFULLY

Denver -3.5 at Buffalo
On paper, the Broncos look like they should walk away with this one. But Buffalo is at home, and something tells me that if JP Losman can make a couple of big plays and Cutler throws a couple of picks the game will be a whole lot closer than it should be. Consider yourself warned.

Washington -3.5 vs. Miami
Here’s another one that seems a little too easy. If you played the Checkmark Game between the Redskins and Dolphins, the Redskins would have checkmarks on their side in almost every single category. Plus, they’re at home. This is one of those games that you have as an “easy win” on your parlay and it ends up screwing you. Or as I like to call it: “The Scot Wright Special”.

Actually, moving forward I’ll just call this section “The Scot Wright Special.”

FREE MONEY

Indy -6 vs. New Orleans
Ever since the NFL did the “Super Bowl winner from the previous season plays on opening night” thing, not only have the defending champs always won, they’ve always covered. Just thought that would be something you’d like to know.

Philly-2.5 at Green Bay
A rejuvenated Donovan McNabb out to prove he’s not injury prone against a Packer team that citing Bill Simmons, who’s citing Pro Football Prospectus was “4-8 (last season heading into Week 14) and lost to four teams with good defenses (the Bears, Pats, Eagles and Jets) by a combined 130-19 margin.”

Good times if you have scratch on Philly.

San Diego -5.5 vs. Chicago
You can call me a homer if you want, but depending on how many interceptions Rex Grossman throws, the Chargers are going to win this one by anywhere from 25 to 32 points.

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